Three Leading Indicators to proof the makets are going to collapse.

The Inventory Adjustment That Boosted GDP Is Now Over
The Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report from the Census Bureau today showed that the inventory adjustment is over:

Inventories. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,354.3 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.1%) from March 2010, but down 2.8 percent (±0.3%) from April 2009.

Inventories/Sales Ratio. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of April was 1.23. The April 2009 ratio was 1.43.



More On The Huge Slowdown Predicted By The ECRI Leading Indicators

David Rosenberg's favorite leading indicator, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Leading Index, fell to 123.2 in the week ended June 4, down from 124 the week before, a -3.5% annualized contraction: the first time this has gone negative in over a year. This is the lowest level since July 31, 2009, when it was at 122.4.

Consensus has expected slower GDP growth in the second half of the year, so the question is whether this index dive simply represents that or something more ominous.


The Consumer Metrics Institute has developed (and is continuing to develop) techniques for monitoring ‘up-stream’ economic activities on a daily basis.

“On May 27th the BEA released its first revision to its 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate measurement, lowering the number from a 3.2% annualized growth rate to 3.0% annualized growth. One day later the Consumer Metrics Institute’s ‘Daily Growth Index’ was signaling what we should expect the BEA’s measurement of the 3rd Quarter 2010 GDP growth rate to be contracting at about a 2.0% rate.


“The prior BEA estimate of 1st Quarter 2010 GDP growth trailed our ‘Daily Growth Index’ by 127 days, and because of the rapid rate that the economy was cooling when the measurements were being made the newly adjusted estimate is now trailing our ‘Daily Growth Index’ by 125 days. Since the 3rd Quarter of 2010 ends 125 days after May 28th (when our ‘Daily Growth Index’ was recording a ‘growth’ rate of -1.99%), if the BEA estimates continue to trail our ‘Daily Growth Index’ in a consistent manner we should expect that the 3rd Quarter’s GDP ‘growth’ rate will be in the -2.0% neighborhood.”

Even BDI,Copper,US railway cargo all leading indicators all pointing towards markets collapse. Who trust the US gov data and survey these days? CNBC?