April Employment Preview
4 hours ago
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
My last Message for 2010: Using President Dwight Eisenhower Quote:
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Friday, December 10, 2010
SOROS: SLOW-DOWN COMING TO GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2011
George Soros, one of the few investment gurus who actually predicted the credit crisis, now believes the global economy is at substantial risk of a downturn in 2011. Soros believes the stagnant economy will result in continued low employment, but an increase in corporate M&A. Soros also discusses the China FX situation as well as the Euro crisis. As always, his comments are must see:
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Monday, December 6, 2010
John Taylor 2011 predictions: US Recession by middle of 2011
Currency guru John Taylor is being interviewed at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit.
Some key points:
Another recession is coming to the US.
The euro will break up, and Germany could leave the way by leaving the common currency.
Commodity currencies are still very appealing, including the Brazilian real, despite Brazil's efforts to cool inflows.
What are his top trades for 2011?
The European situation is going to be very difficult this year, as we get to the Spanish issue as the year goes on. Spain will come up next year. "I'm on record as predicting the euro is going to 1 against the dollar."
And what about poor Switzerland? Selling the euro and buying the Swiss Franc is also a good trade.
Commodity prices are going to come off, and that's going to hurt Australia. That might be a significant hurt depending on their housing situation.
What's Taylor most worried about?
How much is Bernanke going to do when things get negative? Will we have German-style hyperinflation in the US? It's extremely remote, but it has to do with things that we don't understand very well. There have been hyperinflations before, but never like a country in the US.
As for hard assets?
I bought an apartment in Manhattan, which seems insane. I'd love to own more gold.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/fx-concepts-john-taylor-reuters-2010-12#ixzz17P1AsU47
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy is headed for a new recession, said John Taylor, chairman and chief investment officer of FX Concepts, which should likely benefit the dollar and weigh on commodity prices.
"It's a new recession. We're already growing, but the numbers show that the U.S. government is still the primary creator of this growth," Taylor said on Monday at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit.
Taylor runs the world's largest currency hedge fund with assets under management of around $8.5 billion.
"I would argue that by the middle of next year, we will be in a recession and our fiscal hands will be tied," he said.
Taylor has maintained in previous interviews that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, designed as a way to help jump-start the economy, won't necessarily prevent a recession.
Banks in a recession tend to demand the repayment of loans, and if the debt is denominated in the U.S. currency -- and in most cases they are -- then investors are squeezed as they scramble to find dollars to repay the debt. That should be dollar-positive, Taylor said.
This was what happened in late 2008 when panic in the markets -- precipitated by the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers -- drove the safe-haven dollar higher against most major currencies.
"It's kind of perverse. When the U.S. economy is doing badly, the dollar goes up and when the economy is doing well, the dollar goes down."
Taylor's remarks dovetailed with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on Sunday on the CBS program "60 Minutes". Bernanke said the Fed could end up buying more than the $600 billion in U.S. government bonds it has committed if the economy fails to respond or unemployment stays high.
The U.S. economy grew at a modest 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Stronger growth is needed to create large numbers of new jobs and make a dent in unemployment, currently at 9.8 percent.
EURO COULD FALL APART
For now, all eyes are on the euro zone, which is facing a debt crisis. Theoretically, at some point the euro could fall apart, Taylor said,
"What Europe has done is not enough. They have to have eurobonds," said Taylor. "You can't lend money to Ireland or Greece. You're just piling on more debt to them, and it's getting harder and harder to repay."
Taylor said Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland, with Spain after that. This will push the euro to parity versus the dollar by next year, he forecast. In early New York trading, the euro was down 1 percent at $1.3277.
In October, he told Reuters in an interview that the euro would most likely peak between $1.43-$1.45 in November and was most negative on the euro versus the dollar at a time when almost everybody was selling the greenback because of the quantitative easing factor.
On November 4, the euro hit a high of $1.4283 on electronic trading platform EBS and was downhill from there.
Taylor recommended selling the euro against the Swiss franc, a currency whose economy has fared better than most European countries.
The FX Concepts chief was also bearish on commodities, predicting that this asset class will slow down next year as the U.S. economy goes into recession. That should be negative for commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.
He said the Australian dollar, which has been the best performing currency so far among currencies from the Group of 10 rich nations, with gains of about 10 percent on the year, could slide 15-20 percent.
FX Concepts employs several investing strategies. Its global currency program, which invests in both developed and major emerging market currencies, dipped 4.26 percent in November, but its annual return for 2010 is estimated at 12.03 percent.
Some key points:
Another recession is coming to the US.
The euro will break up, and Germany could leave the way by leaving the common currency.
Commodity currencies are still very appealing, including the Brazilian real, despite Brazil's efforts to cool inflows.
What are his top trades for 2011?
The European situation is going to be very difficult this year, as we get to the Spanish issue as the year goes on. Spain will come up next year. "I'm on record as predicting the euro is going to 1 against the dollar."
And what about poor Switzerland? Selling the euro and buying the Swiss Franc is also a good trade.
Commodity prices are going to come off, and that's going to hurt Australia. That might be a significant hurt depending on their housing situation.
What's Taylor most worried about?
How much is Bernanke going to do when things get negative? Will we have German-style hyperinflation in the US? It's extremely remote, but it has to do with things that we don't understand very well. There have been hyperinflations before, but never like a country in the US.
As for hard assets?
I bought an apartment in Manhattan, which seems insane. I'd love to own more gold.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/fx-concepts-john-taylor-reuters-2010-12#ixzz17P1AsU47
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy is headed for a new recession, said John Taylor, chairman and chief investment officer of FX Concepts, which should likely benefit the dollar and weigh on commodity prices.
"It's a new recession. We're already growing, but the numbers show that the U.S. government is still the primary creator of this growth," Taylor said on Monday at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit.
Taylor runs the world's largest currency hedge fund with assets under management of around $8.5 billion.
"I would argue that by the middle of next year, we will be in a recession and our fiscal hands will be tied," he said.
Taylor has maintained in previous interviews that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, designed as a way to help jump-start the economy, won't necessarily prevent a recession.
Banks in a recession tend to demand the repayment of loans, and if the debt is denominated in the U.S. currency -- and in most cases they are -- then investors are squeezed as they scramble to find dollars to repay the debt. That should be dollar-positive, Taylor said.
This was what happened in late 2008 when panic in the markets -- precipitated by the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers -- drove the safe-haven dollar higher against most major currencies.
"It's kind of perverse. When the U.S. economy is doing badly, the dollar goes up and when the economy is doing well, the dollar goes down."
Taylor's remarks dovetailed with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on Sunday on the CBS program "60 Minutes". Bernanke said the Fed could end up buying more than the $600 billion in U.S. government bonds it has committed if the economy fails to respond or unemployment stays high.
The U.S. economy grew at a modest 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Stronger growth is needed to create large numbers of new jobs and make a dent in unemployment, currently at 9.8 percent.
EURO COULD FALL APART
For now, all eyes are on the euro zone, which is facing a debt crisis. Theoretically, at some point the euro could fall apart, Taylor said,
"What Europe has done is not enough. They have to have eurobonds," said Taylor. "You can't lend money to Ireland or Greece. You're just piling on more debt to them, and it's getting harder and harder to repay."
Taylor said Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland, with Spain after that. This will push the euro to parity versus the dollar by next year, he forecast. In early New York trading, the euro was down 1 percent at $1.3277.
In October, he told Reuters in an interview that the euro would most likely peak between $1.43-$1.45 in November and was most negative on the euro versus the dollar at a time when almost everybody was selling the greenback because of the quantitative easing factor.
On November 4, the euro hit a high of $1.4283 on electronic trading platform EBS and was downhill from there.
Taylor recommended selling the euro against the Swiss franc, a currency whose economy has fared better than most European countries.
The FX Concepts chief was also bearish on commodities, predicting that this asset class will slow down next year as the U.S. economy goes into recession. That should be negative for commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.
He said the Australian dollar, which has been the best performing currency so far among currencies from the Group of 10 rich nations, with gains of about 10 percent on the year, could slide 15-20 percent.
FX Concepts employs several investing strategies. Its global currency program, which invests in both developed and major emerging market currencies, dipped 4.26 percent in November, but its annual return for 2010 is estimated at 12.03 percent.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
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