Gluskin Sheff man and über-bear David Rosenberg, for instance, outlined his concerns about unemployment and the prospects of a double-dip recession in a Tuesday note. He’s been at a weekend retreat with Nouriel Roubini and Marc Faber — which means he’s more bearish than ever:
The answer is that the U.S. economy is susceptible to a growth relapse, with all deference to the various purchasing managers’ reports, which for portfolio managers, should be treated as coincident indicators (equities historically have done far better the year after ISM comes off the 30 level than the years after the 60 milestone is reached, just as an example). A variety of recent consumer-related reports, including the May employment and retail sales releases, have been sub-par and are posing appropriate questions as to whether the recovery will be V-shaped. That mortgage applications for new home purchases have plunged 40% in the past five weeks to a 13-year low despite a 25bps decline in mortgage rates is, to be polite, disconcerting . . . Even if we don’t get a double-dip recession (I was the only one at the weekend retreat to see the odds as being more than remote) economic growth will probably be insufficient to absorb the still-large amount of excess capacity in the system. In turn, what that means is that the U.S. unemployment rate will stay near double-digit terrain for an extended period of time. It also means that inflation and interest rates will remain low for a sustained period of time. And, it means that a stock market priced for peak earnings in 2011 could be in for some disappointment.
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