Tuesday, December 28, 2010
My last Message for 2010: Using President Dwight Eisenhower Quote:
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Friday, December 10, 2010
SOROS: SLOW-DOWN COMING TO GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2011
George Soros, one of the few investment gurus who actually predicted the credit crisis, now believes the global economy is at substantial risk of a downturn in 2011. Soros believes the stagnant economy will result in continued low employment, but an increase in corporate M&A. Soros also discusses the China FX situation as well as the Euro crisis. As always, his comments are must see:
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Monday, December 6, 2010
John Taylor 2011 predictions: US Recession by middle of 2011
Currency guru John Taylor is being interviewed at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit.
Some key points:
Another recession is coming to the US.
The euro will break up, and Germany could leave the way by leaving the common currency.
Commodity currencies are still very appealing, including the Brazilian real, despite Brazil's efforts to cool inflows.
What are his top trades for 2011?
The European situation is going to be very difficult this year, as we get to the Spanish issue as the year goes on. Spain will come up next year. "I'm on record as predicting the euro is going to 1 against the dollar."
And what about poor Switzerland? Selling the euro and buying the Swiss Franc is also a good trade.
Commodity prices are going to come off, and that's going to hurt Australia. That might be a significant hurt depending on their housing situation.
What's Taylor most worried about?
How much is Bernanke going to do when things get negative? Will we have German-style hyperinflation in the US? It's extremely remote, but it has to do with things that we don't understand very well. There have been hyperinflations before, but never like a country in the US.
As for hard assets?
I bought an apartment in Manhattan, which seems insane. I'd love to own more gold.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/fx-concepts-john-taylor-reuters-2010-12#ixzz17P1AsU47
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy is headed for a new recession, said John Taylor, chairman and chief investment officer of FX Concepts, which should likely benefit the dollar and weigh on commodity prices.
"It's a new recession. We're already growing, but the numbers show that the U.S. government is still the primary creator of this growth," Taylor said on Monday at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit.
Taylor runs the world's largest currency hedge fund with assets under management of around $8.5 billion.
"I would argue that by the middle of next year, we will be in a recession and our fiscal hands will be tied," he said.
Taylor has maintained in previous interviews that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, designed as a way to help jump-start the economy, won't necessarily prevent a recession.
Banks in a recession tend to demand the repayment of loans, and if the debt is denominated in the U.S. currency -- and in most cases they are -- then investors are squeezed as they scramble to find dollars to repay the debt. That should be dollar-positive, Taylor said.
This was what happened in late 2008 when panic in the markets -- precipitated by the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers -- drove the safe-haven dollar higher against most major currencies.
"It's kind of perverse. When the U.S. economy is doing badly, the dollar goes up and when the economy is doing well, the dollar goes down."
Taylor's remarks dovetailed with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on Sunday on the CBS program "60 Minutes". Bernanke said the Fed could end up buying more than the $600 billion in U.S. government bonds it has committed if the economy fails to respond or unemployment stays high.
The U.S. economy grew at a modest 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Stronger growth is needed to create large numbers of new jobs and make a dent in unemployment, currently at 9.8 percent.
EURO COULD FALL APART
For now, all eyes are on the euro zone, which is facing a debt crisis. Theoretically, at some point the euro could fall apart, Taylor said,
"What Europe has done is not enough. They have to have eurobonds," said Taylor. "You can't lend money to Ireland or Greece. You're just piling on more debt to them, and it's getting harder and harder to repay."
Taylor said Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland, with Spain after that. This will push the euro to parity versus the dollar by next year, he forecast. In early New York trading, the euro was down 1 percent at $1.3277.
In October, he told Reuters in an interview that the euro would most likely peak between $1.43-$1.45 in November and was most negative on the euro versus the dollar at a time when almost everybody was selling the greenback because of the quantitative easing factor.
On November 4, the euro hit a high of $1.4283 on electronic trading platform EBS and was downhill from there.
Taylor recommended selling the euro against the Swiss franc, a currency whose economy has fared better than most European countries.
The FX Concepts chief was also bearish on commodities, predicting that this asset class will slow down next year as the U.S. economy goes into recession. That should be negative for commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.
He said the Australian dollar, which has been the best performing currency so far among currencies from the Group of 10 rich nations, with gains of about 10 percent on the year, could slide 15-20 percent.
FX Concepts employs several investing strategies. Its global currency program, which invests in both developed and major emerging market currencies, dipped 4.26 percent in November, but its annual return for 2010 is estimated at 12.03 percent.
Some key points:
Another recession is coming to the US.
The euro will break up, and Germany could leave the way by leaving the common currency.
Commodity currencies are still very appealing, including the Brazilian real, despite Brazil's efforts to cool inflows.
What are his top trades for 2011?
The European situation is going to be very difficult this year, as we get to the Spanish issue as the year goes on. Spain will come up next year. "I'm on record as predicting the euro is going to 1 against the dollar."
And what about poor Switzerland? Selling the euro and buying the Swiss Franc is also a good trade.
Commodity prices are going to come off, and that's going to hurt Australia. That might be a significant hurt depending on their housing situation.
What's Taylor most worried about?
How much is Bernanke going to do when things get negative? Will we have German-style hyperinflation in the US? It's extremely remote, but it has to do with things that we don't understand very well. There have been hyperinflations before, but never like a country in the US.
As for hard assets?
I bought an apartment in Manhattan, which seems insane. I'd love to own more gold.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/fx-concepts-john-taylor-reuters-2010-12#ixzz17P1AsU47
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy is headed for a new recession, said John Taylor, chairman and chief investment officer of FX Concepts, which should likely benefit the dollar and weigh on commodity prices.
"It's a new recession. We're already growing, but the numbers show that the U.S. government is still the primary creator of this growth," Taylor said on Monday at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit.
Taylor runs the world's largest currency hedge fund with assets under management of around $8.5 billion.
"I would argue that by the middle of next year, we will be in a recession and our fiscal hands will be tied," he said.
Taylor has maintained in previous interviews that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, designed as a way to help jump-start the economy, won't necessarily prevent a recession.
Banks in a recession tend to demand the repayment of loans, and if the debt is denominated in the U.S. currency -- and in most cases they are -- then investors are squeezed as they scramble to find dollars to repay the debt. That should be dollar-positive, Taylor said.
This was what happened in late 2008 when panic in the markets -- precipitated by the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers -- drove the safe-haven dollar higher against most major currencies.
"It's kind of perverse. When the U.S. economy is doing badly, the dollar goes up and when the economy is doing well, the dollar goes down."
Taylor's remarks dovetailed with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on Sunday on the CBS program "60 Minutes". Bernanke said the Fed could end up buying more than the $600 billion in U.S. government bonds it has committed if the economy fails to respond or unemployment stays high.
The U.S. economy grew at a modest 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. Stronger growth is needed to create large numbers of new jobs and make a dent in unemployment, currently at 9.8 percent.
EURO COULD FALL APART
For now, all eyes are on the euro zone, which is facing a debt crisis. Theoretically, at some point the euro could fall apart, Taylor said,
"What Europe has done is not enough. They have to have eurobonds," said Taylor. "You can't lend money to Ireland or Greece. You're just piling on more debt to them, and it's getting harder and harder to repay."
Taylor said Portugal could be the next country to seek a bailout after Ireland, with Spain after that. This will push the euro to parity versus the dollar by next year, he forecast. In early New York trading, the euro was down 1 percent at $1.3277.
In October, he told Reuters in an interview that the euro would most likely peak between $1.43-$1.45 in November and was most negative on the euro versus the dollar at a time when almost everybody was selling the greenback because of the quantitative easing factor.
On November 4, the euro hit a high of $1.4283 on electronic trading platform EBS and was downhill from there.
Taylor recommended selling the euro against the Swiss franc, a currency whose economy has fared better than most European countries.
The FX Concepts chief was also bearish on commodities, predicting that this asset class will slow down next year as the U.S. economy goes into recession. That should be negative for commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.
He said the Australian dollar, which has been the best performing currency so far among currencies from the Group of 10 rich nations, with gains of about 10 percent on the year, could slide 15-20 percent.
FX Concepts employs several investing strategies. Its global currency program, which invests in both developed and major emerging market currencies, dipped 4.26 percent in November, but its annual return for 2010 is estimated at 12.03 percent.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Mortgage- backed securities are not secured by real estate
Today, an article appears in Bloomberg, and it appears to be a rehash of this now week-old story, so I was puzzled to see it run now. But buried in the article is the probable reason for this piece, namely, that the Bloomberg reporters saw that BankThink had purchased and posted the trial transcripts, and quoted more of DeMartini’s testimony. And it isn’t pretty. From Bloomberg:
The judge asked DeMartini whether the notes ever move to follow the transfer of ownership, according to the transcript of the August 2009 hearing.
“I can’t say that they’re never moved because, I mean, with this many millions of loans as we have I wouldn’t presume to say that, but it is not customary for them to move,” DeMartini said.
This is in keeping with the judge’s recap, and also underscores the notion that it was Countrywide’s practice to not convey the notes. We have been told separately that a senior industry executive also said that no one in the industry transferred the notes. If true, this has very serious implications. As we’ve indicated, it means that residential mortgage backed securties are not secured by real estate, or as Adam Levitin put it, they are “non mortgage backed decurities. Bloomberg provides further comments along those lines:
“It may mean investors who think they bought mortgage- backed securities bought securities that aren’t backed by anything,” said Kurt Eggert, a professor at Chapman University School of Law in Orange, California.
With the ramifications so serious, expect industry denials to continue apace until the evidence becomes overwhelming.
The judge asked DeMartini whether the notes ever move to follow the transfer of ownership, according to the transcript of the August 2009 hearing.
“I can’t say that they’re never moved because, I mean, with this many millions of loans as we have I wouldn’t presume to say that, but it is not customary for them to move,” DeMartini said.
This is in keeping with the judge’s recap, and also underscores the notion that it was Countrywide’s practice to not convey the notes. We have been told separately that a senior industry executive also said that no one in the industry transferred the notes. If true, this has very serious implications. As we’ve indicated, it means that residential mortgage backed securties are not secured by real estate, or as Adam Levitin put it, they are “non mortgage backed decurities. Bloomberg provides further comments along those lines:
“It may mean investors who think they bought mortgage- backed securities bought securities that aren’t backed by anything,” said Kurt Eggert, a professor at Chapman University School of Law in Orange, California.
With the ramifications so serious, expect industry denials to continue apace until the evidence becomes overwhelming.
Monday, November 29, 2010
DARPA BioDesign Creating Organisms that LIVE FOREVER
Page 265 DARPA Presidential Budget
“BioDesign is a new intellectual approach to biological functionality. The intrinsic concept is that
by using gained knowledge of biological processes in combination with biotechnology and synthetic chemical technology, humans can employ system engineering methods to originate novel beneficial processes. BioDesign eliminates the randomness of natural evolutionary advancement primarily by advanced genetic engineering and molecular biology technologies to produce the intended biological effect. This thrust area includes designed molecular responses that increase resistance to cellular death signals and improved computational methods for prediction of function based solely on sequence and structure of proteins produced by synthetic biological systems. Development of technologies to genetically tag and/or lock synthesized molecules would provide methods for identifying the origin and source of synthetic biologicals (e.g., genes or proteins) allowing for traceability and prevention of manipulation (“tamper proof” synthetic biological).
FY 2011 Base Plans:
- Demonstrate computation protein conformation algorithms that model one residue per minute with 99.5% accuracy for every one kilodalton of mass regardless of protein class.
- Develop conformation prediction algorithms for biomimetic polymers and biological-nonbiological hybrids involving unnatural amino acids or inorganic materials.
- Demonstrate a robust understanding of the collective mechanisms that contribute to cell death.
- Identify and initiate strategies that would enable a new generation of regenerative cells that could ultimately be programmed to live indefinitely until needed for an injury repair or therapeutic application.
- Develop genetically encoded locks to create "tamper proof" DNA and protect commercial
applications.
- Develop strategies to create a synthetic organism "self-destruct" option to be implemented upon
nefarious removal of organism.
- Permanently append a synthetic organism’s genome and prevent foul play by tracking organism use and history, similar to a traceable serial number on a handgun.”
Source
Page 265 DARPA Presidential Budget
http://www.darpa.mil/Docs/FY2011PresBudget28Jan10%20Final.pdf
“BioDesign is a new intellectual approach to biological functionality. The intrinsic concept is that
by using gained knowledge of biological processes in combination with biotechnology and synthetic chemical technology, humans can employ system engineering methods to originate novel beneficial processes. BioDesign eliminates the randomness of natural evolutionary advancement primarily by advanced genetic engineering and molecular biology technologies to produce the intended biological effect. This thrust area includes designed molecular responses that increase resistance to cellular death signals and improved computational methods for prediction of function based solely on sequence and structure of proteins produced by synthetic biological systems. Development of technologies to genetically tag and/or lock synthesized molecules would provide methods for identifying the origin and source of synthetic biologicals (e.g., genes or proteins) allowing for traceability and prevention of manipulation (“tamper proof” synthetic biological).
FY 2011 Base Plans:
- Demonstrate computation protein conformation algorithms that model one residue per minute with 99.5% accuracy for every one kilodalton of mass regardless of protein class.
- Develop conformation prediction algorithms for biomimetic polymers and biological-nonbiological hybrids involving unnatural amino acids or inorganic materials.
- Demonstrate a robust understanding of the collective mechanisms that contribute to cell death.
- Identify and initiate strategies that would enable a new generation of regenerative cells that could ultimately be programmed to live indefinitely until needed for an injury repair or therapeutic application.
- Develop genetically encoded locks to create "tamper proof" DNA and protect commercial
applications.
- Develop strategies to create a synthetic organism "self-destruct" option to be implemented upon
nefarious removal of organism.
- Permanently append a synthetic organism’s genome and prevent foul play by tracking organism use and history, similar to a traceable serial number on a handgun.”
Source
Page 265 DARPA Presidential Budget
http://www.darpa.mil/Docs/FY2011PresBudget28Jan10%20Final.pdf
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
A important Meeting that occur during FEB 2010 which may explains what happen at the moment.
Some heavyweight hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro in moves that are reminiscent of the trading action at the height of the U.S. financial crisis.
The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC. During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity"—or equal on an exchange basis—with the dollar, people close to the situation say.
The currency wagers signal that big financial players spot a rare trading opening driven by broader market gyrations. The euro, which traded at $1.51 in December, now trades around $1.35. With traders using leverage—often borrowing 20 times the size of their bet, accentuating gains and losses—a euro move to $1 could represent a career trade. If investors put up $5 million to make a $100 million trade, a 5% price move in the right direction doubles their initial investment.
This is an opportunity...to make a lot of money," says Hans Hufschmid, a former senior Salomon Brothers executive who now runs GlobeOp Financial Services SA, a hedge-fund administrator in London and New York.
It is impossible to calculate the precise effect of the elite traders' bearish bets, but they have added to the selling pressure on the currency—and thus to the pressure on the European Union to stem the Greek debt crisis.
There is nothing improper about hedge funds jumping on the same trade unless it is deemed by regulators to be collusion. Regulators haven't suggested that any trading has been improper.
Through small gatherings, hedge funds can discuss similar trades that can feed on each other, in moves similar to those criticized by some investors and bankers in 2008. Then, big hedge-fund managers, such as Greenlight Capital Inc. President David Einhorn, who also was at this month's euro-dominated dinner, determined that the fortunes of Lehman Brothers Holdings and other firms were dim and bet heavily against their securities, accelerating their decline.
An SAC manager, Aaron Cowen, who pitched the group on the bearish bet, said he viewed all possible outcomes relating to the Greek debt crisis as negative for the euro, people familiar with the matter say. SAC's trading position on the euro is unclear.
George Soros, head of the $27-billion asset fund manager, warned publicly last weekend that if the European Union doesn't fix its finances, "the euro may fall apart." Through a spokesman for Soros Fund Management, he declined to comment for this article.
A Greek finance ministry official declined comment. A European Commission spokeswoman said the Commission doesn't comment on market rumors, adding that the EU's executive arm is working toward developing rules to tighten regulation and risk.
Few traders expect the value of the euro to totally collapse, the way the British pound did in 1992 amid a large bearish bet by Mr. Soros. In that famous trade—which traders say led to a $1 billion profit—selling led by Mr. Soros pushed the pound's value so low that Britain was forced to withdraw its currency from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, causing the pound to drop even more sharply. The euro is an extremely deep market, with at least $1.2 trillion in daily trading volume, dwarfing the British pound's daily trading volume in 1992.
Again, derivatives, known as credit default swaps, are playing a part in the current trading. Some of the largest hedge funds, including Paulson & Co., which manages $32 billion, have bought such swaps, traders say, which act as insurance against a default by Greece on its sovereign debt. Traders view higher swaps prices as warning signs of potential default.
Since December, the prices of such swaps have more than doubled, reflecting investors concerns about a default by Greece. Paulson had built a large bearish position on Europe, people familiar with the matter say, including swaps that will pay out if Greece defaults on its debt within five years.
Paulson since has closed out that position and has taken the other side of the bet, leaving the firm with a bullish stance now, a person familiar with the matter says.
In a statement, Paulson declined to comment "on individual positions," saying it "does not manipulate or seek to destabilize securities in any markets."
Late last year, hedge funds bought swaps insuring the debt of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, and began making bearish euro bets. More recently, the hedge funds have sold these swaps to banks looking to "hedge," or protect, their holdings of European government bonds, traders say.
In the past year, the overall value of swaps insuring against a Greek debt default has doubled, to $84.8 billion, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. But the net amount that sellers would actually pay in a default rose just modestly over the same period, up only 4% to $8.9 billion, the DTCC says. This suggests that banks and others have bought and sold roughly equal amounts of swaps to hedge their positions, traders say.
The bigger bet against Europe these days is playing out in the vast foreign exchange markets, which offers a plethora of ways to trade.
The focus on the euro began on Dec. 4, when the currency swooned 1.5% following a jobs report in the U.S. that buoyed the dollar.
Between Dec. 9 and 11, some big European and U.S. banks made bearish calls on the euro by buying one-year euro "puts." Puts give the holder the right to sell an investment at a specified price by a set date.
The pressure on the euro soon began building. The currency fell another 1.3% on Dec. 16 when Standard & Poor's downgraded Greek sovereign debt. At that point, some large investors including asset manager BlackRock Inc. had bearish bets on the euro, believing that it couldn't sustain the levels at which it was then trading and that Europe's financial recovery would lag that of the U.S., according to people familiar with their position.
The concerns about Greece heightened on Jan. 20, when investors began to worry that the country would be unable to refinance its heavy debt load, causing the euro to fall another 1.3%.
On Jan. 22 Greece said it planned a five-year 8 billion euro bond sale in the coming days. To stave off speculators, Greece and its investment-bank advisors limited what could be allocated to hedge funds, said a person familiar with the sale.
By Jan. 28, the value of the new bond had fallen 3.5%, which left investors unhappy.
On Jan. 28 and 29, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. took a group of investors on a field trip to meet with banks in Greece. The group included representatives from about a dozen different money managers, say attendees, including Chicago hedge-fund giant Citadel Investment Group, the New York hedge fund Eton Park Capital Management, and Paulson, which sent two employees, say people who were there. Eton Park declined to comment.
During meetings with the Greek deputy finance minister and executives from the National Bank of Greece, among other banks, some investors raised tough questions about the state of the country's economy, according to these people.
At the Feb. 8 "idea dinner" hosted by Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., a boutique research and brokerage firm, three portfolio managers spoke about investment themes related to the European debt crisis.
During the dinner—featuring lemon-roasted chicken and filet mignon at a private townhouse in Manhattan—a Soros manager predicted that interest rates are going up, people close to the situation say.
Donald Morgan, head of hedge-fund Brigade Capital, told the group he believed Greek debt is an early domino to fall in a contagion that eventually will hit U.S. companies, municipalities and Treasury securities. Mr. Einhorn, meanwhile, who was among the earliest and most vocal bears on Lehman, said he is bullish on gold because of inflation concerns. Mr. Einhorn declined to comment.
By the week of the dinner, the size of the bearish bet against the euro had risen to record levels of 60,000 futures contracts—the most recently available data and the highest level since 1999, according to Morgan Stanley. The data represents the volume of futures contracts that will pay off if the euro sinks to specific levels in the future.
Three days after the dinner, another wave of selling hit the euro, pushing the currency below $1.36.
In a separate move last week, traders from Goldman, Bank of America Corp.'s Merrill Lynch unit, and Barclays Bank PLC were helping investors place a particularly bearish bet on the euro, traders say.
The trade involved an inexpensive put option that will provide its holder a big payoff if the euro falls to the level of a single U.S. dollar within a year. Known as a "tail-risk" trade because its probability is low, the euro-dollar parity put is a cheap way of ensuring that if the euro sinks dramatically within a year, an investor will generate big returns.
A going price for the bet is around 7% of the amount that a parity-trade would pay off. So, for an investor seeking a $1 million bet, the cost is $70,000. This means that the market currently assigns roughly 14-to-1 odds that parity will be reached. In November, the odds were around 33-to-1, said a person who has seen the trade's pricing.
The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC. During the dinner, hosted by a boutique investment bank at a private townhouse in Manhattan, a small group of all-star hedge-fund managers argued that the euro is likely to fall to "parity"—or equal on an exchange basis—with the dollar, people close to the situation say.
The currency wagers signal that big financial players spot a rare trading opening driven by broader market gyrations. The euro, which traded at $1.51 in December, now trades around $1.35. With traders using leverage—often borrowing 20 times the size of their bet, accentuating gains and losses—a euro move to $1 could represent a career trade. If investors put up $5 million to make a $100 million trade, a 5% price move in the right direction doubles their initial investment.
This is an opportunity...to make a lot of money," says Hans Hufschmid, a former senior Salomon Brothers executive who now runs GlobeOp Financial Services SA, a hedge-fund administrator in London and New York.
It is impossible to calculate the precise effect of the elite traders' bearish bets, but they have added to the selling pressure on the currency—and thus to the pressure on the European Union to stem the Greek debt crisis.
There is nothing improper about hedge funds jumping on the same trade unless it is deemed by regulators to be collusion. Regulators haven't suggested that any trading has been improper.
Through small gatherings, hedge funds can discuss similar trades that can feed on each other, in moves similar to those criticized by some investors and bankers in 2008. Then, big hedge-fund managers, such as Greenlight Capital Inc. President David Einhorn, who also was at this month's euro-dominated dinner, determined that the fortunes of Lehman Brothers Holdings and other firms were dim and bet heavily against their securities, accelerating their decline.
An SAC manager, Aaron Cowen, who pitched the group on the bearish bet, said he viewed all possible outcomes relating to the Greek debt crisis as negative for the euro, people familiar with the matter say. SAC's trading position on the euro is unclear.
George Soros, head of the $27-billion asset fund manager, warned publicly last weekend that if the European Union doesn't fix its finances, "the euro may fall apart." Through a spokesman for Soros Fund Management, he declined to comment for this article.
A Greek finance ministry official declined comment. A European Commission spokeswoman said the Commission doesn't comment on market rumors, adding that the EU's executive arm is working toward developing rules to tighten regulation and risk.
Few traders expect the value of the euro to totally collapse, the way the British pound did in 1992 amid a large bearish bet by Mr. Soros. In that famous trade—which traders say led to a $1 billion profit—selling led by Mr. Soros pushed the pound's value so low that Britain was forced to withdraw its currency from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, causing the pound to drop even more sharply. The euro is an extremely deep market, with at least $1.2 trillion in daily trading volume, dwarfing the British pound's daily trading volume in 1992.
Again, derivatives, known as credit default swaps, are playing a part in the current trading. Some of the largest hedge funds, including Paulson & Co., which manages $32 billion, have bought such swaps, traders say, which act as insurance against a default by Greece on its sovereign debt. Traders view higher swaps prices as warning signs of potential default.
Since December, the prices of such swaps have more than doubled, reflecting investors concerns about a default by Greece. Paulson had built a large bearish position on Europe, people familiar with the matter say, including swaps that will pay out if Greece defaults on its debt within five years.
Paulson since has closed out that position and has taken the other side of the bet, leaving the firm with a bullish stance now, a person familiar with the matter says.
In a statement, Paulson declined to comment "on individual positions," saying it "does not manipulate or seek to destabilize securities in any markets."
Late last year, hedge funds bought swaps insuring the debt of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, and began making bearish euro bets. More recently, the hedge funds have sold these swaps to banks looking to "hedge," or protect, their holdings of European government bonds, traders say.
In the past year, the overall value of swaps insuring against a Greek debt default has doubled, to $84.8 billion, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. But the net amount that sellers would actually pay in a default rose just modestly over the same period, up only 4% to $8.9 billion, the DTCC says. This suggests that banks and others have bought and sold roughly equal amounts of swaps to hedge their positions, traders say.
The bigger bet against Europe these days is playing out in the vast foreign exchange markets, which offers a plethora of ways to trade.
The focus on the euro began on Dec. 4, when the currency swooned 1.5% following a jobs report in the U.S. that buoyed the dollar.
Between Dec. 9 and 11, some big European and U.S. banks made bearish calls on the euro by buying one-year euro "puts." Puts give the holder the right to sell an investment at a specified price by a set date.
The pressure on the euro soon began building. The currency fell another 1.3% on Dec. 16 when Standard & Poor's downgraded Greek sovereign debt. At that point, some large investors including asset manager BlackRock Inc. had bearish bets on the euro, believing that it couldn't sustain the levels at which it was then trading and that Europe's financial recovery would lag that of the U.S., according to people familiar with their position.
The concerns about Greece heightened on Jan. 20, when investors began to worry that the country would be unable to refinance its heavy debt load, causing the euro to fall another 1.3%.
On Jan. 22 Greece said it planned a five-year 8 billion euro bond sale in the coming days. To stave off speculators, Greece and its investment-bank advisors limited what could be allocated to hedge funds, said a person familiar with the sale.
By Jan. 28, the value of the new bond had fallen 3.5%, which left investors unhappy.
On Jan. 28 and 29, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. took a group of investors on a field trip to meet with banks in Greece. The group included representatives from about a dozen different money managers, say attendees, including Chicago hedge-fund giant Citadel Investment Group, the New York hedge fund Eton Park Capital Management, and Paulson, which sent two employees, say people who were there. Eton Park declined to comment.
During meetings with the Greek deputy finance minister and executives from the National Bank of Greece, among other banks, some investors raised tough questions about the state of the country's economy, according to these people.
At the Feb. 8 "idea dinner" hosted by Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., a boutique research and brokerage firm, three portfolio managers spoke about investment themes related to the European debt crisis.
During the dinner—featuring lemon-roasted chicken and filet mignon at a private townhouse in Manhattan—a Soros manager predicted that interest rates are going up, people close to the situation say.
Donald Morgan, head of hedge-fund Brigade Capital, told the group he believed Greek debt is an early domino to fall in a contagion that eventually will hit U.S. companies, municipalities and Treasury securities. Mr. Einhorn, meanwhile, who was among the earliest and most vocal bears on Lehman, said he is bullish on gold because of inflation concerns. Mr. Einhorn declined to comment.
By the week of the dinner, the size of the bearish bet against the euro had risen to record levels of 60,000 futures contracts—the most recently available data and the highest level since 1999, according to Morgan Stanley. The data represents the volume of futures contracts that will pay off if the euro sinks to specific levels in the future.
Three days after the dinner, another wave of selling hit the euro, pushing the currency below $1.36.
In a separate move last week, traders from Goldman, Bank of America Corp.'s Merrill Lynch unit, and Barclays Bank PLC were helping investors place a particularly bearish bet on the euro, traders say.
The trade involved an inexpensive put option that will provide its holder a big payoff if the euro falls to the level of a single U.S. dollar within a year. Known as a "tail-risk" trade because its probability is low, the euro-dollar parity put is a cheap way of ensuring that if the euro sinks dramatically within a year, an investor will generate big returns.
A going price for the bet is around 7% of the amount that a parity-trade would pay off. So, for an investor seeking a $1 million bet, the cost is $70,000. This means that the market currently assigns roughly 14-to-1 odds that parity will be reached. In November, the odds were around 33-to-1, said a person who has seen the trade's pricing.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Monday, November 22, 2010
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Modern version of Credit Anstalt
If mishandled, Ireland could all too easily become a sovereign version of Credit Anstalt - the Austrian bank that brought down the central European financial system in 1931, sent tremors through London and New York, and set off the second deeper phase of the Great Depression, the phase when politics turned ugly.
“Does the ECB understand the concept of contagion?” asked Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at RBS. Three EMU countries have already been shut out of the capital markets, and footloose foreign creditors hold €2 trillion of debt securities issued by Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
“Does the ECB understand the concept of contagion?” asked Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at RBS. Three EMU countries have already been shut out of the capital markets, and footloose foreign creditors hold €2 trillion of debt securities issued by Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
A China 15 storey hotel born in 6 days period. The New China Speed Building record
As the United States and China battle over the finer points of currency manipulation at the G-20 summit, American negotiators may want to take note of this startling testimonial to the productivity of Chinese workers: A construction crew in the south-central Chinese city of Changsha has completed a 15-story hotel in just six days. If nothing else, this remarkable achievement will stoke further complaints from American economic pundits that China's economy is far more accomplished than ours in tending to such basics as construction.
The work crew erected the hotel -- a soundproofed, thermal-insulated structure reportedly built to withstand a magnitude 9 earthquake -- with all prefabricated materials. In other words, a crew of off-site factory workers built the sections, and their on-site counterparts arranged them on the foundation for the Ark project.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
Debt monetization is also called inflation tax
of debt monetization the outcome is an increase in the monetary base, or the
money supply. If a budget deficit persists for a substantial period of time then
the monetary base will also increase, shifting the aggregate demand curve to the
right leading to a rise in the price level.When governments intentionally do
this, they devalue existing stockpiles of wealth of anyone who is holding assets
based in that currency. It is in essence a "tax" as the overall value of their
assets decrease due to a loss in spending power. This is known as "inflation
tax".
To summarize: a deficit can be the source of sustained inflation only
if it is persistent rather than temporary and if the government finances it by
creating money (through monetizing the debt), rather than leaving bonds in the
hands of the public.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Headlines From 2012: "New York Stock Exchange Soars As Others Crash"
While markets across the world have been crashing, the New York Stock Exchange has being seeing record gains as citizens turn to equities to protect their money from the country's hyperinflation. The benchmark Industrial Index soared 257 percent on Tuesday up from a previous one day record of 241 percent on Monday with some companies seeing share prices increase by up to 3,500 percent. But before asian traders start packing their bags and heading west, they should bear in mind that these figures are just another representation of America's collapsing economy and are almost meaningless in real terms. USA, once a Global breadbasket, is staggering amid the world's worst inflation, a looming humanitarian emergency and worsening shortages of food, gasoline and most basic goods. Inflation is at 231 million percent, but some experts put it more at about 20 trillion percent.
"Why leave money in the bank?" asked chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange at a seminar on the doing business in China on Tuesday.
"People are forced to come on the stock market. They believe that after hard currency, the stock market is the only viable option where you can get a bit of a return," he said.
Everyone expressed their dismay at the "gross economic mismanagement" by the USA government which has led to the collapse of the Global economy, however, the stock exchange was managing to survive despite the harsh environment.
"Why leave money in the bank?" asked chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange at a seminar on the doing business in China on Tuesday.
"People are forced to come on the stock market. They believe that after hard currency, the stock market is the only viable option where you can get a bit of a return," he said.
Everyone expressed their dismay at the "gross economic mismanagement" by the USA government which has led to the collapse of the Global economy, however, the stock exchange was managing to survive despite the harsh environment.
Heli Ben: The dollar is our currency, but your problem.
If US monetary policy eases further, it will get the exchange rate depreciation that it wants. It will indeed win the currency wars. Conventional wisdom is wrong: The US can, after all, devalue the dollar. But there are costs:
* A wave of trade protectionism is not excluded, although its probability is low;
* More likely are capital account protectionism, in the form of emerging market capital controls; and
* Damaging exchange-rate volatility, including among the large countries, if QE is not coordinated (simultaneous).
Moreover, in the longer run, this could substantially weaken the hegemony of the dollar in the international financial system.
* A wave of trade protectionism is not excluded, although its probability is low;
* More likely are capital account protectionism, in the form of emerging market capital controls; and
* Damaging exchange-rate volatility, including among the large countries, if QE is not coordinated (simultaneous).
Moreover, in the longer run, this could substantially weaken the hegemony of the dollar in the international financial system.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
THE JULIE PROJECT (It shall teaches everyone something)
Everyone shall see this in order for everyone to keep working for a better future for yourself and your children.
http://www.darcypadilla.com/thejulieproject/2010.html
17 years in the making, this unique and award-winning documentary follows the life of one woman, Julie Baird. The story begins in 1993, when Darcy meets an 19 year-old runaway with a newborn in her arms in the lobby of an SRO in San Francisco’s Tenderloin. Over the years Darcy has photographed Julie’s complex story of AIDS, multiple homes, relationships, drugs, poverty, births, deaths, loss and reunion. Following Julie from the backstreets of San Francisco to the backwoods of Alaska.
Photographer: Darcy Padilla
Project Title: "The Julie Project"
I first met Julie on February 28, 1993. She stood in the lobby of the Ambassador Hotel, barefoot, pants unzipped and an eight day-old infant in her arms. She lived in San Francisco’s SRO district, a neighborhood of soup kitchens and cheap rooms. Her room was piled with clothes, over flowing ashtrays and trash. At the time she was living with Jack, father of her first baby, Rachel. Jack had given her AIDS and she left him months later to stop using drugs.
Julie’s first memory of her mother was getting drunk with her at six years old and then being sexually abused by her stepfather. She was a runaway at 14, and became drug addict at 15 living in alleys, crack dens and bunking with more dirty old men than she cared to count.
Over the last 17 years I have photographed Julie’s complex story of multiple homes, AIDS, abusive relationships, drug abuse and poverty.
By 2003, Julie had given birth to five children: Rachel, Tommy, Jordan, Ryan and Jason Jr. All were taken from her by the State of California. She had “stolen” one newborn from the hospital so he wouldn't be taken from her after she had tested positive for drugs. The incident cost Julie and Jason, her partner, time in jail.
In 2005 during a Google search, I saw a posting looking for “Julie Baird: 10-10-73” and called the number. It turned out to be Julie’s father (whom she had never known) looking for her. Months later, Julie and Jason were living with him. She was born in Alaska and lived there until her 17-year-old mother stole her away after a fight with her father. Her father, Bill spent 31 years looking for her. After reuniting, they had a year together before he died of a heart attack.
In 2007 I received a call from the adoptive mother of Julie’s fifth child who was taken at birth. “Zach” (Jason Jr.’s adopted name) is the first of Julie’s children to find her. After meeting Zach, Julie said, “part of me wanted him to be miserable… to where he wanted his birth mom back, and he is happy …that makes me so happy…part of me wanted him not to be…I feel like she is doing a better job than I ever could of… it makes me happy but it also crushes me.”
In 2008, Julie gave birth to her sixth child, Elyssa. She intends to keep Elyssa and raise her with her partner in their latest home in “the bush” - no running water or electricity and 20 miles from the nearest town. She is too weak to carry Elyssa, Julie’s AIDS has progressed significantly and even standing has become a struggle.
The purpose of my project was – and is – to take disparate arguments about welfare, poverty, family rights, AIDS and substance abuse and personalize them by detailing the life of one person. Julie’s story provides us with window into a community that is difficult for most of us to imagine. My hope is that the Getty Images Grant for Editorial Photography will further this project, not only help us to understand her life, but also for her children, Rachel, Tommy, Jordan, Ryan, Zach and Elyssa to know the truth about it, one day.
http://www.darcypadilla.com/thejulieproject/2010.html
17 years in the making, this unique and award-winning documentary follows the life of one woman, Julie Baird. The story begins in 1993, when Darcy meets an 19 year-old runaway with a newborn in her arms in the lobby of an SRO in San Francisco’s Tenderloin. Over the years Darcy has photographed Julie’s complex story of AIDS, multiple homes, relationships, drugs, poverty, births, deaths, loss and reunion. Following Julie from the backstreets of San Francisco to the backwoods of Alaska.
Photographer: Darcy Padilla
Project Title: "The Julie Project"
I first met Julie on February 28, 1993. She stood in the lobby of the Ambassador Hotel, barefoot, pants unzipped and an eight day-old infant in her arms. She lived in San Francisco’s SRO district, a neighborhood of soup kitchens and cheap rooms. Her room was piled with clothes, over flowing ashtrays and trash. At the time she was living with Jack, father of her first baby, Rachel. Jack had given her AIDS and she left him months later to stop using drugs.
Julie’s first memory of her mother was getting drunk with her at six years old and then being sexually abused by her stepfather. She was a runaway at 14, and became drug addict at 15 living in alleys, crack dens and bunking with more dirty old men than she cared to count.
Over the last 17 years I have photographed Julie’s complex story of multiple homes, AIDS, abusive relationships, drug abuse and poverty.
By 2003, Julie had given birth to five children: Rachel, Tommy, Jordan, Ryan and Jason Jr. All were taken from her by the State of California. She had “stolen” one newborn from the hospital so he wouldn't be taken from her after she had tested positive for drugs. The incident cost Julie and Jason, her partner, time in jail.
In 2005 during a Google search, I saw a posting looking for “Julie Baird: 10-10-73” and called the number. It turned out to be Julie’s father (whom she had never known) looking for her. Months later, Julie and Jason were living with him. She was born in Alaska and lived there until her 17-year-old mother stole her away after a fight with her father. Her father, Bill spent 31 years looking for her. After reuniting, they had a year together before he died of a heart attack.
In 2007 I received a call from the adoptive mother of Julie’s fifth child who was taken at birth. “Zach” (Jason Jr.’s adopted name) is the first of Julie’s children to find her. After meeting Zach, Julie said, “part of me wanted him to be miserable… to where he wanted his birth mom back, and he is happy …that makes me so happy…part of me wanted him not to be…I feel like she is doing a better job than I ever could of… it makes me happy but it also crushes me.”
In 2008, Julie gave birth to her sixth child, Elyssa. She intends to keep Elyssa and raise her with her partner in their latest home in “the bush” - no running water or electricity and 20 miles from the nearest town. She is too weak to carry Elyssa, Julie’s AIDS has progressed significantly and even standing has become a struggle.
The purpose of my project was – and is – to take disparate arguments about welfare, poverty, family rights, AIDS and substance abuse and personalize them by detailing the life of one person. Julie’s story provides us with window into a community that is difficult for most of us to imagine. My hope is that the Getty Images Grant for Editorial Photography will further this project, not only help us to understand her life, but also for her children, Rachel, Tommy, Jordan, Ryan, Zach and Elyssa to know the truth about it, one day.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Who Likes War? Who know what happen after QE1001?
After so many years and wars, no one still learn any single lesson out of it.
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